By any criteria a 5-3 night is a solid performance. The crooked services do this by
coming up with all sorts of confusing and contradictory rating systems and hyperbolic descriptions for
their games. A bit of a Faustian bargain, to say the least, but it was
an effective way of keeping up with scores in the pre-Internet dark ages.So one night
we're at a party thrown by some kid that we didn't like too much. That's
because he was too buy bragging about his mythical 7-1 performance the preceding day.Now, I
understand that the revelation that boiler room touts like about their performance is on par
with "pro wrestling is fake" or "the games at the fair aren't on the up-and-up"
as self evident truths. How many times have you heard a handicapper brag about being
"16-2 on his 500 star MWC underdog plays of the month" or saying that his
"Southern Conference total of the month is 60% lifetime"?Basically, the bottom feeders of this industry
can slice and dice their statistics all sorts of ways to make themselves seem "hot".
The point I'm trying to make, however, is that the desire to be the "hot
handicapper: is so great that the tout felt he had to tn requin embellish a solid performance
the night before.So despite the fact that some handicappers like about their performance, what's wrong
with trying to ride the hot handicapper? Plenty-it's not only an ineffective way to evaluate
a handicapper's abilities, it also has a number of statistical and theoretical shortcomings.The simplest way
to explain what I'm talking about is to borrow a disclaimer that you'll hear on
every commercial for a mutual fund: "Past performance is no guarantee of future results". I
had less faith in his handicapping ability than I would in a prognostication based on
a divining rod or Ouija Board, but since I wasn't paying for the call I
figured I'd just see how the guy did. In other words, the sports gambling marketplace
and the random patterns of events that act upon them don't care if I hit
60% last year. Much to my surprise, the tout didn't say a word about his
5-3 night. If I don't do my work, crunch the numbers, get good prices to
bet into, and catch a few breaks along the way I may end up beaten
regardless of how well I performed in a subsequent period of time.James Robert Murphy has
written extensively on the history of Las tn Vegas, poker, casino gambling, and sports betting. He
has contributed UFC news [http://www.thesavagescience.com] to a number of online and broadcast media sources. I
wrote down his plays and checked his performance the next morning.To his credit, the tout
went 5-3 on his 8 plays. The most prevalent means of sports service marketing is
some variant on the theme that so and so is "red hot" and you should
therefore pay him your money and follow his plays. When I was first starting out
as a sports handicapper there was no such thing as the Internet (at least as
it exists today) and I had to rely on a scorephone for line and score
updates. The sports gambling milieu, like those of stocks, commodities and other financial instruments, is
a marketplace and subject to a number of the same tendencies of other financial institutions
(what economists call "market dynamics").The fact that a sports wager's success or failure is dependent
to a degree on the "whims" of a marketplace (of odds and pointspreads) and to
a greater degree on other external events outside of the bettor's control exacerbates what is
already a matter of simple logic: what a handicapper does over a period of time
(be it a day, week, month or season) has no intrinsic correlation between a handicapper's
performance one year and the next. This scorephone was sponsored by a group of touts
not noted for their veracity, and you had to sit through a few pitches for
their 900 numbers before you got to the scores. Or they can do what a
lot of them do, and simply lie about their performance. Later that day I called
the scorephone and waited for the tout to start crowing about his 5-3 night. Since
there's no such thing as 900# directory assistance, I resulted to the only 900# I
could remember - one of the touts from the scorephone that had drilled his digits
into my memory through the sheer force of repetition.For the sake of argument, I decided
to write down the tout's NBA plays. Someone got the idea to rack up some
900# charges on our mark's phone bill. He currently serves as the project manager for
an online MMA news [http://www.thesavagescience.com] Web site, The Savage Science. My crew and I were
racking our brains to think of some mean pranks to pull on the guy. In
his spare time, he is working on a biography of Las Vegas sports betting pioneer
Bob Martin..
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